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THE RECEIPTS
WE SHOW OUR WORK.
Every prediction goes on the record. Here is how close our predicted sale prices land on homes that have since sold.
2.40%
Typical gap between our predicted sale price and the actual sale price.
Loading the latest numbers.
What this number is
When a home is listed, First Access Signals records a predicted sale price for it. When that home later sells, we compare the prediction to the real selling price. The number above is the median gap across those homes: half of our predictions land closer than that, half land further. A gap of about 2.4 percent means half of our predicted prices were within 2.4 percent of what the home actually sold for.
See it home by home
We do not just publish one number. On a closed listing, the app shows what we predicted next to what the home actually sold for, so you can check us one sale at a time. Browse listings.
How we measure it
We use the median absolute percentage gap, the standard accuracy measure for home-value estimates, and we leave out any home that was used to build the model, so every figure here is out-of-sample, measured on homes the model had not seen. The full methodology, including the probability side of the Signal, is on the methodology page.
Who can see what
The overall accuracy on this page is public. The price a specific home sold for is reserved for registered consumers, because board rules treat closed sale prices as members-only. Create a free account to see the per-home comparisons.